2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Hertha BSC

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 February 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Hertha BSCMarc Kempf (assist: P. Dárdai)
56'SpVgg Greuther FürthB. Hrgota (assist: S. Asta)
63'Hertha BSCMarc Kempf (assist: J. Kenny)
90+10'Hertha BSCF. Niederlechner · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Hertha BSC
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
518	Passes	289
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.79 · Hertha BSC 1.23. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16 · Hertha BSC 12; on target 7 and 7.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Fritz→

3.92

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.28 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 492 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win46.9%

Draw25.7%

Hertha BSC to win27.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time39.9%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time36.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level63.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 492 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 10
Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 6Actual: 2
Hertha BSC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.79

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.23

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.4%1–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.