2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

Hannover 96–1. FC Magdeburg

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 October 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Hannover 96E. Leopold
57'1. FC MagdeburgB. Atik (assist: C. Krempicki)
61'Hannover 96C. Teuchert (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		1. FC Magdeburg
15	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	6
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
357	Passes	511
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.99 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.40. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hannover 96 15 · 1. FC Magdeburg 14; on target 5 and 8.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Aarnink→

4.79

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Hannover 96, 1.47 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 387 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win44.5%

Draw24.8%

1. FC Magdeburg to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time38.9%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 387 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 12Actual: 9
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 4Actual: 6
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.99

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.40

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.9%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.