2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

1. FC Kaiserslautern–1. FC Nürnberg

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 September 2023 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Tachie
26'1. FC KaiserslauternT. Puchacz (assist: M. Ritter)
30'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache (assist: T. Puchacz)
36'1. FC NürnbergL. Schleimer (assist: B. Goller)
88'1. FC NürnbergChristian Mathenia · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		1. FC Nürnberg
12	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
3	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
278	Passes	479
197	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.63 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.08. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 12 · 1. FC Nürnberg 18; on target 5 and 4.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Aarnink→

4.67

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.17 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 347 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win45.5%

Draw27.1%

1. FC Nürnberg to win27.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–1

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time48.3%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 347 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 12
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5Actual: 4
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.08

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.2%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.