Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 38

Auxerre–Concarneau

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 17 May 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'ConcarneauB. Moussiti-Oko (assist: A. Georgen)
40'AuxerreA. Onaiwu (assist: P. Joly)
63'AuxerreA. Onaiwu (assist: Rayan Raveloson)
80'AuxerreA. Onaiwu (assist: P. Joly)
85'AuxerreG. Hein

Match statistics

Match statistics
Auxerre		Concarneau
21	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
583	Passes	423
523	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Auxerre 2.02 · Concarneau 0.74. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Auxerre 21 · Concarneau 8; on target 10 and 3.
Auxerre kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

N. Rainville→

3.69

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.56 for Auxerre, 1.12 for Concarneau.
The highest double chance value is 86.9% (1X — Auxerre win or draw).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Auxerre to win69.1%

Draw17.8%

Concarneau to win13.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Auxerre lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time43.3%

Concarneau lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Auxerre ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Concarneau ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 749 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Auxerre: at least 12Actual: 9
Concarneau: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Auxerre: at least 5Actual: 2
Concarneau: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Auxerre score2.02

Attack: Auxerre score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Concarneau concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.02 goals.

How many goals Concarneau score0.74

Attack: Concarneau score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.2%3–18.7%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.