Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 38

Caen–Valenciennes

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 May 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'CaenT. Gomis
63'CaenT. Gomis (assist: A. Mendy)
85'CaenA. Mendy (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Caen		Valenciennes
18	Shots	15
9	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
422	Passes	407
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Caen 1.66 · Valenciennes 0.77. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Caen 18 · Valenciennes 15; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

O. Thual→

3.30

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “Caen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Caen, 0.86 for Valenciennes.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Caen win or draw).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Caen to win71.2%

Draw18.2%

Valenciennes to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Caen win or draw89.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.8%

X2 — draw or Valenciennes win28.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Caen lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

Valenciennes lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Caen ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Valenciennes ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 749 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Caen: at least 12Actual: 14
Valenciennes: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Caen: at least 4Actual: 5
Valenciennes: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Caen score1.66

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valenciennes score0.77

Attack: Valenciennes score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.6%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 749 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 75 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.