Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 36

Estac Troyes–Valenciennes

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 May 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Estac TroyesS. Elisor (assist: K. Dong)
60'ValenciennesNick Venema (assist: Manga Foe Ondoa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Valenciennes
14	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
322	Passes	421
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.37 · Valenciennes 0.95. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Estac Troyes 14 · Valenciennes 8; on target 6 and 4.
Valenciennes kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Thual→

3.28

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Estac Troyes, 0.95 for Valenciennes.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win45.8%

Draw29.4%

Valenciennes to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	25

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time46.0%

Valenciennes lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Valenciennes ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 13Actual: 14
Valenciennes: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 5
Valenciennes: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.37

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valenciennes score0.95

Attack: Valenciennes score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–012.7%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.