Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 36

Grenoble–Concarneau

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 May 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Alpes, Grenoble

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'ConcarneauA. Urie (penalty)
41'GrenobleJ. Benet (penalty)
43'GrenobleJ. Benet (assist: M. Tourraine)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Grenoble		Concarneau
9	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
408	Passes	579
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Grenoble 1.36 · Concarneau 0.97. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Grenoble 9 · Concarneau 9; on target 6 and 2.
Concarneau kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

T. Bouille→

3.76

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Grenoble to win”. Second comes “Concarneau to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Grenoble, 1.24 for Concarneau.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Grenoble to win43.9%

Draw26.9%

Concarneau to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Grenoble win or draw70.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Concarneau win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Grenoble lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time51.3%

Concarneau lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Grenoble ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time48.7%

X2 — level or Concarneau ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Grenoble: at least 13Actual: 11
Concarneau: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Grenoble: at least 4Actual: 6
Concarneau: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Grenoble score1.36

Attack: Grenoble score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Concarneau concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Concarneau score0.97

Attack: Concarneau score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Grenoble's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.1%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 729 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.