Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 36

Bordeaux–Ajaccio

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 May 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BordeauxPedro Díaz (assist: Z. Vipotnik)
28'BordeauxZ. Davitashvili (assist: I. Sissokho)
87'BordeauxY. Barbet (penalty)
90+1'BordeauxV. N'Simba (assist: Pedro Díaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bordeaux		Ajaccio
18	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
472	Passes	356
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bordeaux 1.27 · Ajaccio 0.94. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Bordeaux 18 · Ajaccio 5; on target 6 and 1.
Bordeaux kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Taleb→

3.50

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Bordeaux to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Bordeaux, 0.97 for Ajaccio.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Bordeaux win or draw).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bordeaux to win48.1%

Draw28.2%

Ajaccio to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bordeaux lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Ajaccio lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bordeaux ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Ajaccio ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bordeaux: at least 11Actual: 12
Ajaccio: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Bordeaux: at least 4Actual: 5
Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bordeaux score1.27

Attack: Bordeaux score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajaccio score0.94

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bordeaux's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–012.0%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.