Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 35

Ajaccio–Quevilly

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade François Coty, Ajaccio

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'QuevillyK. Coulibaly
53'AjaccioH. Sakhi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajaccio		Quevilly
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	1
4	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
600	Passes	334
503	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajaccio 1.09 · Quevilly 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ajaccio 11 · Quevilly 10; on target 4 and 4.
Ajaccio kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. Letexier→

4.09

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.9%: “Quevilly to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Ajaccio, 1.03 for Quevilly.
The highest double chance value is 67.5% (X2 — draw or Quevilly win).
These values were computed from 720 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajaccio to win32.5%

Draw32.6%

Quevilly to win34.9%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ajaccio lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

Quevilly lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajaccio ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Quevilly ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 720 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajaccio: at least 12Actual: 6
Quevilly: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 8
Quevilly: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajaccio score1.09

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Quevilly's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Quevilly score1.10

Attack: Quevilly score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.7%0–013.0%0–112.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.