Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 35

Saint Etienne–Caen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Saint EtienneA. Moueffek (assist: I. Cardona)
90+2'CaenBrahim Traoré · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Caen
11	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
356	Passes	416
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.51 · Caen 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Saint Etienne 11 · Caen 20; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

N. Rainville→

3.80

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Saint Etienne, 0.99 for Caen.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 719 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win59.2%

Draw23.3%

Caen to win17.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Saint Etienne win or draw82.5%

12 — any result other than a draw76.7%

X2 — draw or Caen win40.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time44.4%

Caen lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Caen ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 719 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 14Actual: 13
Caen: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 4
Caen: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.51

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Caen score0.94

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 719 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.