Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Quevilly–Amiens

3–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Robert Diochon, Le Petit-Quevilly

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'QuevillyB. Pierret (assist: L. Delaurier-Chaubet)
33'AmiensL. Mafouta (assist: F. Boya)
45+2'AmiensL. Mafouta (penalty)
45+3'AmiensL. Mafouta (assist: K. Kaiboue)
58'QuevillyK. Coulibaly (assist: Garland Gbelle)
81'QuevillyAntoine Batisse

Match statistics

Match statistics
Quevilly		Amiens
19	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
563	Passes	422
457	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Quevilly 1.41 · Amiens 0.89. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Quevilly 19 · Amiens 10; on target 8 and 3.
Quevilly kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

P. Legat→

4.41

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Quevilly to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Quevilly, 1.00 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Quevilly win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Quevilly to win41.6%

Draw30.3%

Amiens to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Quevilly lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time46.4%

Amiens lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Quevilly ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Quevilly: at least 13Actual: 15
Amiens: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Quevilly: at least 4
Amiens: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Quevilly score1.41

Attack: Quevilly score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score0.89

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Quevilly's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.4%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.