Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Valenciennes–Ajaccio

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'ValenciennesA. Jung · red card
48'ValenciennesManga Foe Ondoa (assist: Nick Venema)
90+8'AjaccioFrancois-Joseph Sollacaro · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valenciennes		Ajaccio
13	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
405	Passes	399
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valenciennes 0.83 · Ajaccio 1.18. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Valenciennes 13 · Ajaccio 15; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.85

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Ajaccio to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.64 for Valenciennes, 1.13 for Ajaccio.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (X2 — draw or Ajaccio win).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valenciennes to win19.7%

Draw33.2%

Ajaccio to win47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Valenciennes lead at half-time16.1%

Level at half-time43.3%

Ajaccio lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Valenciennes ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Ajaccio ahead83.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valenciennes: at least 12Actual: 16
Ajaccio: at least 14Actual: 22

Corners

Valenciennes: at least 3Actual: 3
Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valenciennes score0.83

Attack: Valenciennes score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajaccio score1.18

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–118.9%0–016.5%1–114.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.