Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Saint Etienne–Bordeaux

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'BordeauxPedro Díaz (assist: Z. Davitashvili)
73'Saint EtienneM. Nade · red card
90+1'Saint EtienneI. Cardona (assist: T. Monconduit)
90+4'Saint EtienneI. Cardona

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Bordeaux
24	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	10
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
322	Passes	439
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.48 · Bordeaux 1.04. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 24 · Bordeaux 14; on target 7 and 5.
Bordeaux kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.46

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Saint Etienne, 1.17 for Bordeaux.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 700 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win50.2%

Draw25.5%

Bordeaux to win24.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Saint Etienne lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time40.4%

Bordeaux lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Bordeaux ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 700 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 14Actual: 20
Bordeaux: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 5Actual: 8
Bordeaux: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.48

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Bordeaux's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bordeaux score1.04

Attack: Bordeaux score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.6%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.