Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Paris FC–Valenciennes

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'ValenciennesA. Jung (assist: A. Linguet)
20'Paris FCN. Dicko
25'Paris FCT. Ollila (assist: I. Kebbal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Valenciennes
17	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
742	Passes	315
661	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.72 · Valenciennes 0.69. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Paris FC 17 · Valenciennes 3; on target 7 and 1.
Paris FC kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

M. Leleu→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Paris FC, 0.60 for Valenciennes.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 700 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win71.2%

Draw20.0%

Valenciennes to win8.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris FC win or draw91.2%

12 — any result other than a draw80.0%

X2 — draw or Valenciennes win28.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Paris FC lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time47.7%

Valenciennes lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Valenciennes ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 700 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 12Actual: 15
Valenciennes: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4
Valenciennes: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.72

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valenciennes score0.69

Attack: Valenciennes score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.4%1–014.3%3–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 700 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 70 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.