Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Concarneau–Amiens

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'AmiensG. Kakuta · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Concarneau		Amiens
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
57%	Possession	43%
500	Passes	378
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Concarneau 1.16 · Amiens 1.17. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Concarneau 9 · Amiens 9; on target 2 and 2.
Concarneau kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

B. Lepaysant→

3.68

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Amiens to win”. Second comes “Concarneau to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Concarneau, 1.14 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 69.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Concarneau to win33.1%

Draw31.0%

Amiens to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Concarneau lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time49.6%

Amiens lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Concarneau ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Concarneau: at least 11Actual: 18
Amiens: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Concarneau: at least 4Actual: 3
Amiens: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Concarneau score1.16

Attack: Concarneau score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score1.17

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Concarneau concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.5%1–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.