Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Quevilly–Auxerre

4–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Robert Diochon, Le Petit-Quevilly

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'QuevillyK. Coulibaly
31'AuxerreG. Hein (assist: A. Onaiwu)
58'AuxerreA. Onaiwu (assist: Florian Ayé)
66'QuevillyB. Pierret
90+2'QuevillyM. Camara (assist: D. Poha)
90+5'AuxerreA. Onaiwu (assist: T. Pellenard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Quevilly		Auxerre
18	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
368	Passes	548
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Quevilly 1.17 · Auxerre 1.33. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Quevilly 18 · Auxerre 18; on target 7 and 8.
Auxerre kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.85

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “Quevilly to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Quevilly, 1.45 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Quevilly to win29.2%

Draw28.0%

Auxerre to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Issa Soumaré · red card

90+10'QuevillyP. Yade

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Quevilly win or draw57.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Auxerre win70.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Quevilly lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time42.2%

Auxerre lead at half-time39.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Quevilly ahead or level60.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Quevilly: at least 13Actual: 13
Auxerre: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Quevilly: at least 4Actual: 6
Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Quevilly score1.17

Attack: Quevilly score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.33

Attack: Auxerre score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Quevilly's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.8%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 690 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.