Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Bordeaux–Bastia

2–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'BastiaC. Vincent (assist: F. Bohnert)
25'BastiaC. Vincent
32'BastiaM. Alfarela (assist: J. Janneh)
44'BordeauxZ. Davitashvili (assist: Pedro Díaz)
46'BordeauxJ. Livolant

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bordeaux		Bastia
17	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
77%	Possession	23%
752	Passes	225
685	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bordeaux 1.55 · Bastia 0.99. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Bordeaux 17 · Bastia 5; on target 5 and 4.
Bordeaux kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

G. Paradis→

4.35

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Bordeaux to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Bordeaux, 1.03 for Bastia.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Bordeaux win or draw).
These values were computed from 690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bordeaux to win50.3%

Draw26.7%

Bastia to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Bordeaux lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Bastia lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bordeaux ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Bastia ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bordeaux: at least 11Actual: 8
Bastia: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

Bordeaux: at least 4
Bastia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bordeaux score1.55

Attack: Bordeaux score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bastia score0.99

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bordeaux's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.