Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Annecy–Valenciennes

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Sports, Annecy

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'ValenciennesFlamarion (assist: M. Lilepo)
48'AnnecyN. Kandil (assist: Francois Lajugie)
49'AnnecyM. Adeline (assist: Ousmane Camara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Annecy		Valenciennes
16	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	2
4	Offsides	5
46%	Possession	54%
413	Passes	483
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Annecy 1.40 · Valenciennes 0.87. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Annecy 16 · Valenciennes 6; on target 12 and 1.

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.29

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.9%: “Annecy to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Annecy, 0.70 for Valenciennes.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Annecy win or draw).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Annecy to win60.9%

Draw25.2%

Valenciennes to win14.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Annecy lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time45.3%

Valenciennes lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Annecy ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Valenciennes ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 680 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Annecy: at least 14Actual: 21
Valenciennes: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Annecy: at least 5Actual: 4
Valenciennes: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Annecy score1.40

Attack: Annecy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valenciennes score0.87

Attack: Valenciennes score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.1%2–013.5%1–112.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.