Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Caen–Bordeaux

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'BordeauxPedro Díaz (assist: Z. Davitashvili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Caen		Bordeaux
16	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
453	Passes	492
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Caen 1.36 · Bordeaux 1.23. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Caen 16 · Bordeaux 11; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

A. Souifi→

3.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Caen to win”. Second comes “Bordeaux to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Caen, 1.19 for Bordeaux.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Caen to win42.2%

Draw27.9%

Bordeaux to win29.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Caen win or draw70.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Bordeaux win57.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Caen lead at half-time33.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Bordeaux lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Caen ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Bordeaux ahead66.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 680 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Caen: at least 13Actual: 14
Bordeaux: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Caen: at least 4Actual: 7
Bordeaux: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Caen score1.36

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bordeaux's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bordeaux score1.23

Attack: Bordeaux score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.8%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 680 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 67 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.