Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Saint Etienne–Concarneau

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Saint EtienneM. Nade (assist: I. Cardona)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Concarneau
9	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	3
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
477	Passes	405
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.91 · Concarneau 0.76. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Saint Etienne 9 · Concarneau 10; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

A. Kherradji→

3.67

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Saint Etienne, 0.79 for Concarneau.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 679 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win66.8%

Draw21.1%

Concarneau to win12.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Saint Etienne win or draw87.8%

12 — any result other than a draw78.9%

X2 — draw or Concarneau win33.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time41.7%

Level at half-time45.2%

Concarneau lead at half-time13.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level86.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Concarneau ahead58.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 14Actual: 14
Concarneau: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 7
Concarneau: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.91

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Concarneau concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Concarneau score0.76

Attack: Concarneau score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.3%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 679 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.