Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 20

Bastia–Angers

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 January 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'BastiaF. Bianchini (assist: M. Alfarela)
60'BastiaM. Alfarela (assist: B. Santelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bastia		Angers
14	Shots	1
5	Shots on target	0
9	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
492	Passes	539
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bastia 1.29 · Angers 1.22. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bastia 14 · Angers 1; on target 5 and 0.

Referee

B. Lepaysant→

3.76

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Bastia to win”. Second comes “Angers to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Bastia, 1.05 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 570 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bastia to win36.4%

Draw31.3%

Angers to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bastia lead at half-time15.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Angers lead at half-time41.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bastia ahead or level58.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Angers ahead84.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 570 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bastia: at least 13Actual: 9
Angers: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Bastia: at least 4Actual: 8
Angers: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bastia score1.29

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score1.22

Attack: Angers score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.9%0–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.