Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 16

Bordeaux–Estac Troyes

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 December 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Estac TroyesA. Lefebvre (assist: M. Diop)
64'BordeauxJ. Ekomié · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bordeaux		Estac Troyes
24	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
57%	Possession	43%
401	Passes	314
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bordeaux 1.89 · Estac Troyes 0.72. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bordeaux 24 · Estac Troyes 12; on target 4 and 3.
Bordeaux kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

B. Lepaysant→

3.65

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.1%: “Bordeaux to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Bordeaux, 0.86 for Estac Troyes.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Bordeaux win or draw).
These values were computed from 529 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bordeaux to win66.1%

Draw20.9%

Estac Troyes to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bordeaux win or draw87.0%

12 — any result other than a draw79.1%

X2 — draw or Estac Troyes win33.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bordeaux lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time45.5%

Estac Troyes lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bordeaux ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Estac Troyes ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 529 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bordeaux: at least 11Actual: 16
Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Bordeaux: at least 5Actual: 10
Estac Troyes: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bordeaux score1.89

Attack: Bordeaux score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estac Troyes score0.72

Attack: Estac Troyes score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bordeaux concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.9%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 529 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 15 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.