Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 18

Antalyaspor–Eyüpspor

1–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 January 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'EyüpsporM. Thiam (assist: Rúben Vezo)
35'EyüpsporM. Thiam (penalty)
41'EyüpsporAhmed Kutucu
48'AntalyasporR. Safouri (assist: S. van de Streek)
62'EyüpsporP. O. Ampem (assist: M. Thiam)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antalyaspor		Eyüpspor
22	Shots	15
8	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
426	Passes	415
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antalyaspor 1.36 · Eyüpspor 1.43. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Antalyaspor 22 · Eyüpspor 15; on target 8 and 6.

Unavailable players

Antalyaspor

E. Rakipout · red-card suspension
B. Öztürkdoubtful · Ankle Injury

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
I. Taskinout · Muscle Injury
R. Niyazout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

5.58

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Eyüpspor to win”. Second comes “Antalyaspor to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Antalyaspor, 1.38 for Eyüpspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 849 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antalyaspor to win33.4%

Draw28.1%

Eyüpspor to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Antalyaspor lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time42.5%

Eyüpspor lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Antalyaspor ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Eyüpspor ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 848 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antalyaspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Eyüpspor: at least 13Actual: 5

Corners

Antalyaspor: at least 5Actual: 11
Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antalyaspor score1.36

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.43

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.3%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.