Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Venezia–Brescia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 April 2024 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia

Goals and red cards

20'VeneziaTanner Tessmann
90'VeneziaTanner Tessmann (assist: N. Lella)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Brescia
20	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
350	Passes	442
295	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 1.63 · Brescia 1.02. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Venezia 20 · Brescia 9; on target 6 and 4.
Brescia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Baroni→

4.79

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Venezia, 1.02 for Brescia.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Venezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win51.2%

Draw26.5%

Brescia to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Venezia lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time40.5%

Brescia lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Brescia ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 12Actual: 15
Brescia: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Venezia: at least 5Actual: 9
Brescia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score1.63

Attack: Venezia score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Brescia's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brescia score1.02

Attack: Brescia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–010.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.