Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 31

Parma–Catanzaro

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 1 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Goals and red cards

11'CatanzaroT. Biasci (assist: M. Šitum)
39'CatanzaroMatias Antonini (assist: J. Vandeputte)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Parma		Catanzaro
27	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	2
23	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
565	Passes	420
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Parma 1.76 · Catanzaro 0.92. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Parma 27 · Catanzaro 7; on target 5 and 2.
Parma kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

N. Baroni→

4.96

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Parma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Parma, 0.92 for Catanzaro.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Parma win or draw).
These values were computed from 681 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Parma to win57.1%

Draw24.9%

Catanzaro to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Parma lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time38.9%

Catanzaro lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Parma ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Catanzaro ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 681 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Parma: at least 14Actual: 14
Catanzaro: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Parma: at least 5Actual: 8
Catanzaro: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Parma score1.76

Attack: Parma score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Catanzaro's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Catanzaro score0.92

Attack: Catanzaro score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.3%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.