Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Cremonese–Como

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 March 2024 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

Goals and red cards

14'ComoG. Strefezza · red card
45'CremoneseM. Coda (penalty)
67'ComoLucas Da Cunha
88'CremoneseL. Zanimacchia (assist: F. Vazquez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Como
14	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	1
4	Offsides	1
70%	Possession	30%
534	Passes	222
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 1.42 · Como 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Cremonese 14 · Como 4; on target 3 and 2.
Cremonese kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

G. Camplone→

5.38

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Cremonese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Cremonese, 0.93 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Cremonese win or draw).
These values were computed from 664 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win48.0%

Draw28.8%

Como to win23.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cremonese lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time46.8%

Como lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Como ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 664 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 13Actual: 16
Como: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Cremonese: at least 5Actual: 7
Como: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score1.42

Attack: Cremonese score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score0.93

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.8%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.