Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Spezia–Feralpisalo

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 28 February 2024 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

Goals and red cards

38'FeralpisaloM. Felici
76'FeralpisaloAndrea La Mantia (assist: A. Pilati)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Feralpisalo
19	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
549	Passes	281
452	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 1.49 · Feralpisalo 1.29. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Spezia 19 · Feralpisalo 9; on target 3 and 2.
Spezia kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

N. Baroni→

4.96

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “Feralpisalo to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Spezia, 1.29 for Feralpisalo.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 647 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win41.2%

Draw27.3%

Feralpisalo to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Spezia lead at half-time38.3%

Level at half-time45.5%

Feralpisalo lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Feralpisalo ahead61.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 647 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 14Actual: 16
Feralpisalo: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Spezia: at least 4Actual: 8
Feralpisalo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score1.49

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feralpisalo concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feralpisalo score1.29

Attack: Feralpisalo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.7%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.