Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 20

Como–Spezia

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 January 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Goals and red cards

27'ComoLucas Da Cunha (assist: O. Abildgaard)
37'ComoPatrick Cutrone (assist: Lucas Da Cunha)
59'ComoA. Gabrielloni (assist: O. Abildgaard)
63'ComoLucas Da Cunha

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Spezia
27	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	4
18	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
428	Passes	436
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.69 · Spezia 0.93. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Como 27 · Spezia 13; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

N. Baroni→

5.09

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Como, 0.93 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 571 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win55.3%

Draw25.7%

Spezia to win19.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

23	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Como lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time49.2%

Spezia lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 571 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 14Actual: 23
Spezia: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Como: at least 4Actual: 5
Spezia: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.69

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score0.93

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–011.6%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.