Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Como–Modena

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 December 2023 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Goals and red cards

42'ComoS. Verdi (penalty)
56'ModenaGiovanni Zaro
87'ComoA. Gabrielloni
90+8'ComoF. Barba · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Modena
8	Shots	22
4	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
388	Passes	457
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.32 · Modena 0.92. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Como 8 · Modena 22; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

G. Camplone→

5.32

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Como, 0.92 for Modena.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 537 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win45.4%

Draw29.9%

Modena to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Como win or draw75.4%

12 — any result other than a draw70.1%

X2 — draw or Modena win54.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Como lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time48.7%

Modena lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.3%

X2 — level or Modena ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 537 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 13Actual: 10
Modena: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Como: at least 4Actual: 2
Modena: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (42.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.32

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Modena's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Modena score0.92

Attack: Modena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.4%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 537 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 53 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.