Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 14

Cremonese–Lecco

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 November 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

Goals and red cards

20'CremoneseM. Castagnetti (assist: M. Coda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Lecco
16	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
470	Passes	378
396	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 2.52 · Lecco 0.65. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cremonese 16 · Lecco 11; on target 2 and 3.
Cremonese kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

G. Camplone→

5.28

yellows per match

0.56

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.1%: “Cremonese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.52 for Cremonese, 0.65 for Lecco.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (1X — Cremonese win or draw).
These values were computed from 509 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win79.1%

Draw14.6%

Lecco to win6.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Cremonese win or draw93.8%

12 — any result other than a draw85.4%

X2 — draw or Lecco win20.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cremonese lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time45.2%

Lecco lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Lecco ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 509 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 11Actual: 19
Lecco: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Cremonese: at least 5Actual: 6
Lecco: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score2.52

Attack: Cremonese score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Lecco concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.52 goals.

How many goals Lecco score0.65

Attack: Lecco score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%3–011.7%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.