Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Rotherham–Cardiff

5–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium, Rotherham, South Yorkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'RotherhamJ. Hugill (assist: C. Bramall)
38'CardiffN. Phillips (assist: O. Tanner)
45+2'RotherhamT. Eaves (assist: C. Bramall)
47'CardiffO. Tanner (assist: Cian Ashford)
57'RotherhamT. Eaves (penalty)
63'RotherhamS. Nombe

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rotherham		Cardiff
16	Shots	20
7	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
258	Passes	542
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rotherham 1.06 · Cardiff 1.27. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Rotherham 16 · Cardiff 20; on target 7 and 5.
Cardiff kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Davies→

3.65

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Cardiff to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Rotherham, 1.46 for Cardiff.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Cardiff win).
These values were computed from 1,092 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rotherham to win27.9%

Draw28.0%

Cardiff to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: L. Peltier)

69'RotherhamJ. Hugill

9	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rotherham win or draw55.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Cardiff win72.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Rotherham lead at half-time21.5%

Level at half-time44.4%

Cardiff lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rotherham ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Cardiff ahead78.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1092 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rotherham: at least 10Actual: 9
Cardiff: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Rotherham: at least 4Actual: 4
Cardiff: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rotherham score1.06

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cardiff concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cardiff score1.27

Attack: Cardiff score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.1%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1092 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 91 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.