Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Ipswich–Huddersfield

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'IpswichW. Burns (assist: C. Chaplin)
48'IpswichOmari Hutchinson (assist: Sam Morsy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Huddersfield
24	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	0
1	Offsides	3
63%	Possession	37%
599	Passes	345
522	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 2.08 · Huddersfield 0.78. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ipswich 24 · Huddersfield 5; on target 5 and 2.
Ipswich kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

S. Hooper→

4.00

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.3%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Ipswich, 0.75 for Huddersfield.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (1X — Ipswich win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,092 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win78.3%

Draw14.6%

Huddersfield to win7.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ipswich win or draw92.9%

12 — any result other than a draw85.4%

X2 — draw or Huddersfield win21.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ipswich lead at half-time48.6%

Level at half-time38.5%

Huddersfield lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Huddersfield ahead51.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1092 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 11Actual: 9
Huddersfield: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Ipswich: at least 6
Huddersfield: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score2.08

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Huddersfield's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huddersfield score0.78

Attack: Huddersfield score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%3–010.7%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1092 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 45 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.