Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Bristol City–Rotherham

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Bristol CityT. Conway (penalty)
57'Bristol CityS. Twine

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Rotherham
13	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
71%	Possession	29%
645	Passes	264
550	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.76 · Rotherham 0.68. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bristol City 13 · Rotherham 6; on target 5 and 2.
Bristol City kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

C. Breakspear→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Bristol City, 0.74 for Rotherham.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — Bristol City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,080 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win69.7%

Draw19.8%

Rotherham to win10.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bristol City lead at half-time48.2%

Level at half-time41.6%

Rotherham lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Rotherham ahead51.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1080 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 8Actual: 5
Rotherham: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Bristol City: at least 6Actual: 4
Rotherham: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.76

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rotherham score0.68

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.3%1–011.5%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.