Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Huddersfield–Birmingham

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: John Smith's Stadium, Huddersfield, West Yorkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'BirminghamK. Miyoshi (assist: K. Anderson)
47'HuddersfieldR. Healey (assist: J. Rudoni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huddersfield		Birmingham
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
372	Passes	328
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huddersfield 1.35 · Birmingham 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Huddersfield 12 · Birmingham 12; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.22

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Huddersfield to win”. Second comes “Birmingham to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Huddersfield, 1.33 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,080 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huddersfield to win38.0%

Draw27.7%

Birmingham to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Huddersfield lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time46.3%

Birmingham lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Huddersfield ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1080 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huddersfield: at least 9Actual: 7
Birmingham: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Huddersfield: at least 5Actual: 9
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huddersfield score1.35

Attack: Huddersfield score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.16

Attack: Birmingham score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Huddersfield's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.3%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.