Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Rotherham–Birmingham

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium, Rotherham, South Yorkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rotherham		Birmingham
11	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
318	Passes	365
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rotherham 1.01 · Birmingham 1.40. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Rotherham 11 · Birmingham 6; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

K. Stroud→

5.04

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Rotherham, 1.73 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (X2 — draw or Birmingham win).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rotherham to win17.4%

Draw25.0%

Birmingham to win57.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rotherham win or draw42.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win82.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rotherham lead at half-time18.1%

Level at half-time43.8%

Birmingham lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rotherham ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead81.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rotherham: at least 10Actual: 16
Birmingham: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Rotherham: at least 4Actual: 7
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rotherham score1.01

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.40

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%0–112.0%0–211.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1067 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 89 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.