Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Huddersfield–Swansea

0–4

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: John Smith's Stadium, Huddersfield, West Yorkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'SwanseaJ. Lowe (assist: J. Paterson)
85'SwanseaRonald (assist: J. Tymon)
90+1'SwanseaJ. Yates
90+3'SwanseaL. Walsh (assist: A. Abdulai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huddersfield		Swansea
9	Shots	19
0	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
32%	Possession	68%
239	Passes	547
155	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huddersfield 1.37 · Swansea 1.31. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Huddersfield 9 · Swansea 19; on target 0 and 7.
Swansea kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

J. Busby→

3.88

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “Huddersfield to win”. Second comes “Swansea to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Huddersfield, 1.17 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huddersfield to win45.9%

Draw27.0%

Swansea to win27.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Huddersfield lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time44.5%

Swansea lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Huddersfield ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huddersfield: at least 10Actual: 15
Swansea: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Huddersfield: at least 4Actual: 4
Swansea: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huddersfield score1.37

Attack: Huddersfield score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.31

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huddersfield's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.2%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.