Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Swansea–Rotherham

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'SwanseaA. Rinomhota (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Rotherham
16	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
550	Passes	235
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 2.00 · Rotherham 0.75. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Swansea 16 · Rotherham 4; on target 6 and 0.
Swansea kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

L. Doughty→

4.41

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Swansea, 0.75 for Rotherham.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win71.9%

Draw18.4%

Rotherham to win9.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw90.3%

12 — any result other than a draw81.6%

X2 — draw or Rotherham win28.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Swansea lead at half-time54.5%

Level at half-time36.6%

Rotherham lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Rotherham ahead45.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 10
Rotherham: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Swansea: at least 6
Rotherham: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score2.00

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rotherham score0.75

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–010.5%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1055 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.