Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Bristol City–Huddersfield

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'HuddersfieldJ. Koroma
90+11'Bristol CityN. Wells (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Huddersfield
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
12	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
542	Passes	336
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.51 · Huddersfield 0.95. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bristol City 9 · Huddersfield 13; on target 3 and 4.
Bristol City kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

R. Welch→

4.33

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Bristol City, 1.07 for Huddersfield.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (1X — Bristol City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win42.2%

Draw29.2%

Huddersfield to win28.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bristol City lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time46.0%

Huddersfield lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Huddersfield ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 9Actual: 7
Huddersfield: at least 9Actual: 18

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 12
Huddersfield: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.51

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huddersfield's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huddersfield score0.95

Attack: Huddersfield score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.2%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.