Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

West Brom–Rotherham

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 10 April 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'West BromB. Thomas-Asante (assist: A. Reach)
45+1'West BromJ. Swift (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Rotherham
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
618	Passes	290
551	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 2.05 · Rotherham 0.63. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots West Brom 11 · Rotherham 12; on target 4 and 1.
West Brom kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

G. Eltringham→

3.86

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.6%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for West Brom, 0.55 for Rotherham.
The highest double chance value is 94.1% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,051 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win78.6%

Draw15.5%

Rotherham to win5.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 88 of 227 predictions were correct (38.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — West Brom win or draw94.1%

12 — any result other than a draw84.5%

X2 — draw or Rotherham win21.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.5%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

West Brom lead at half-time55.0%

Level at half-time37.4%

Rotherham lead at half-time7.7%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level92.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Rotherham ahead45.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1051 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 7Actual: 4
Rotherham: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

West Brom: at least 6Actual: 4
Rotherham: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score2.05

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rotherham score0.63

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.9%3–012.4%1–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1051 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.