Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Plymouth–QPR

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Park, Plymouth

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'QPRS. Field
85'PlymouthA. Adomah (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plymouth		QPR
13	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
445	Passes	362
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plymouth 1.36 · QPR 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Plymouth 13 · QPR 14; on target 5 and 4.
Plymouth kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Simpson→

4.13

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “QPR to win”. Second comes “Plymouth to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Plymouth, 1.28 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plymouth to win32.6%

Draw29.4%

QPR to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Plymouth lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

QPR lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Plymouth ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or QPR ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plymouth: at least 9Actual: 12
QPR: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Plymouth: at least 5Actual: 10
QPR: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plymouth score1.36

Attack: Plymouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score1.13

Attack: QPR score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.2%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.