Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Preston–Huddersfield

4–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'HuddersfieldJ. Koroma (assist: D. Burgzorg)
53'PrestonW. Keane (penalty)
84'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: D. Holmes)
87'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: A. Browne)
90+2'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: M. Frokjaer-Jensen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Huddersfield
14	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
456	Passes	299
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.34 · Huddersfield 1.09. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Preston 14 · Huddersfield 8; on target 7 and 2.
Preston kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

L. Smith→

4.18

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “Huddersfield to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Preston, 1.13 for Huddersfield.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win38.3%

Draw29.7%

Huddersfield to win32.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preston lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

Huddersfield lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Huddersfield ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 11Actual: 10
Huddersfield: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Preston: at least 5Actual: 8
Huddersfield: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.34

Attack: Preston score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Huddersfield's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huddersfield score1.09

Attack: Huddersfield score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.6%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.