Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Sheffield Wednesday–Swansea

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 March 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Sheffield WednesdayB. Cadamarteri (assist: B. Diaby)
76'SwanseaJ. Lowe (assist: H. Darling)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Swansea
14	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
31%	Possession	69%
252	Passes	577
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.32 · Swansea 1.33. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 14 · Swansea 8; on target 4 and 4.
Swansea kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

G. Eltringham→

3.93

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Sheffield Wednesday to win”. Second comes “Swansea to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.27 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win37.5%

Draw28.4%

Swansea to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time22.7%

Level at half-time43.0%

Swansea lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead77.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1007 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 12Actual: 10
Swansea: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 3
Swansea: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.32

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.33

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.1%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.