Championship · England · Regular Season - 36

Hull City–Birmingham

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 5 March 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The MKM Stadium, Hull

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Hull CityOzan Tufan (assist: J. Greaves)
82'BirminghamL. Jutkiewicz (assist: A. Pritchard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Birmingham
22	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
4	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
686	Passes	392
611	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.54 · Birmingham 1.03. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hull City 22 · Birmingham 8; on target 5 and 3.
Hull City kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

K. Stroud→

4.98

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Hull City, 1.04 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 971 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win57.9%

Draw23.5%

Birmingham to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hull City win or draw81.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win42.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hull City lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time42.6%

Birmingham lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 971 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 9Actual: 7
Birmingham: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Hull City: at least 5Actual: 10
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.54

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.03

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 971 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 80 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.