Championship · England · Regular Season - 29

Ipswich–Rotherham

4–3

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 February 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'RotherhamT. Eaves (assist: S. Clucas)
9'IpswichW. Burns (assist: Sam Morsy)
14'IpswichK. Moore (assist: W. Burns)
29'IpswichW. Burns
60'RotherhamHakeem Odofin
90+4'RotherhamCafu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Rotherham
11	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
357	Passes	398
250	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 2.28 · Rotherham 0.58. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Ipswich 11 · Rotherham 13; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

K. Stroud→

5.02

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.4%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for Ipswich, 0.64 for Rotherham.
The highest double chance value is 93.2% (1X — Ipswich win or draw).
These values were computed from 943 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win77.4%

Draw15.8%

Rotherham to win6.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Omari Hutchinson (assist: K. Jackson)

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ipswich win or draw93.2%

12 — any result other than a draw84.2%

X2 — draw or Rotherham win22.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.8%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Ipswich lead at half-time54.6%

Level at half-time35.6%

Rotherham lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Rotherham ahead45.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 943 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 16
Rotherham: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Ipswich: at least 6Actual: 2
Rotherham: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score2.28

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Rotherham concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rotherham score0.58

Attack: Rotherham score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%3–011.5%1–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 943 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.