Championship · England · Regular Season - 31

Hull City–Swansea

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 February 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The MKM Stadium, Hull

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'SwanseaL. Cullen (assist: J. Tymon)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Swansea
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
586	Passes	404
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.59 · Swansea 1.15. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hull City 9 · Swansea 13; on target 3 and 5.
Hull City kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

G. Eltringham→

3.96

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Hull City, 1.03 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win55.6%

Draw24.6%

Swansea to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hull City win or draw80.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Swansea win44.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hull City lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time41.5%

Swansea lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 10Actual: 7
Swansea: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Hull City: at least 4Actual: 2
Swansea: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.59

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.15

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.9%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 909 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 75 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.