Omonia Nicosia–Celta Vigo

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'Omonia NicosiaJure Balkovec

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Nicosia		Celta Vigo
11	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
480	Passes	535
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.38 · Celta Vigo 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Omonia Nicosia 11 · Celta Vigo 18; on target 5 and 5.

Announced lineup

Omonia Nicosia

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Henning Berg

Starting XI

Fabianogoalkeeper
Jure Balkovecdefender
Ľubomír Šatkadefender
Senou Coulibalydefender
Jean-Kévin Duvernedefender
Panagiotis Andreoumidfielder
Mateo Marićmidfielder
Jaden Montnormidfielder
Muamer Tankovićmidfielder
Ewandro Costamidfielder
Loïs Dionyforward

Substitutes

Andreas Christou

Unavailable players

Omonia Nicosia

Angelos Neophytouout · not in squad
B. Akintolaout · not in squad
C. Eitingout · Knee Injury
F. Kitsosout · Knee Injury

Celta Vigo

A. Antanonout · Ankle Injury
I. Aspasout · Muscle Injury
Aleix Febasdoubtful · Ribs Injury
Borja Iglesiasdoubtful · injury
J. El Abdellaouidoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Balazs Berke, Hungary→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.57 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (X2 — draw or Celta Vigo win).
These values were computed from 2,442 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win23.2%

Draw24.6%

Celta Vigo to win52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Andronikos Kakoullis

Christoforou Panagiotis

Christos Konstantinidis

Celta Vigo

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: Claudio Giraldez

Starting XI

Ionuț Radugoalkeeper
Marcos Alonsodefender
Carl Starfeltdefender
Javi Rodríguezdefender
Sergio Carreiramidfielder
Hugo Burciomidfielder
Miguel Románmidfielder
Álvaro Núñezmidfielder
Ferrán Jutglàforward
Pablo Duránforward
Couhaib Driouechforward

Substitutes

Abdoulaye Faye
Aleix Febas
Altay Bayındır
Borja Iglesias
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo González
Ilaix Moriba
Javi Galán
Javier Rueda
Sebastián Cáceres
Williot Swedberg
Yoel Lago

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 16:58.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw47.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Celta Vigo win76.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.38

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.09

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.0%1–111.6%0–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2442 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 147 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.