1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Beykoz Anadolu–Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: 15 Temmuz Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Gençlerbirliği S.K.P. Awuku (own goal)
90+2'Beykoz AnadoluS. Baş

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beykoz Anadolu		Gençlerbirliği S.K.
14	Shots	2
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
415	Passes	342
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beykoz Anadolu 1.05 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Beykoz Anadolu 14 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2; on target 4 and 1.
Beykoz Anadolu kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Y. Kol→

4.29

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “Beykoz Anadolu to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Beykoz Anadolu, 1.16 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..
The highest double chance value is 69.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beykoz Anadolu to win31.7%

Draw31.0%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time46.6%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Beykoz Anadolu ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 13Actual: 13
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 4Actual: 7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score1.05

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.16

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.9%0–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.