1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Giresunspor–Ümraniyespor

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 10 May 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresun

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'ÜmraniyesporS. Nas
36'ÜmraniyesporA. Babacan (assist: Uğur Kaan Yıldız)
58'GiresunsporMehmet Keskin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Giresunspor		Ümraniyespor
6	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	9
3	Shots inside the box	9
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	4
4	Offsides	5
31%	Possession	69%
296	Passes	668
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Giresunspor 0.77 · Ümraniyespor 1.85. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Giresunspor 6 · Ümraniyespor 15; on target 2 and 9.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

B. Olcar→

4.86

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.3%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.77 for Giresunspor, 1.85 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win).
These values were computed from 611 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Giresunspor to win13.5%

Draw23.1%

Ümraniyespor to win63.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Giresunspor lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time44.7%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time38.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Giresunspor ahead or level61.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 611 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Giresunspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Giresunspor: at least 3Actual: 1
Ümraniyespor: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Giresunspor score0.77

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (50% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.85

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor concede 60% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.9%0–112.9%1–111.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.