1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Keçiörengücü–Altay

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 May 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'KeçiörengücüA. Kubalas (assist: Ş. Çetin)
70'AltayN. Küçükdeniz (assist: E. Yetkin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Keçiörengücü		Altay
14	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	1
5	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
523	Passes	320
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Keçiörengücü 1.80 · Altay 0.65. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Keçiörengücü 14 · Altay 4; on target 3 and 2.
Keçiörengücü kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

İ. Avcı→

3.75

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.5%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Keçiörengücü, 0.65 for Altay.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Keçiörengücü win or draw).
These values were computed from 610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Keçiörengücü to win65.5%

Draw23.0%

Altay to win11.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time49.9%

Level at half-time39.4%

Altay lead at half-time10.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü ahead or level89.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Altay ahead50.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 610 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Keçiörengücü: at least 11Actual: 10
Altay: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Keçiörengücü: at least 5Actual: 1
Altay: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.80

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 56% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altay score0.65

Attack: Altay score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.0%2–014.5%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.