1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Sakaryaspor–Beykoz Anadolu

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu, Adapazarı

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Beykoz AnadoluS. Mamba (assist: H. Çiftçi)
90+6'Beykoz AnadoluS. Baş (assist: L. Stankovski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Beykoz Anadolu
17	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
11	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
503	Passes	223
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 1.59 · Beykoz Anadolu 0.94. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Sakaryaspor 17 · Beykoz Anadolu 7; on target 1 and 2.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

4.91

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Sakaryaspor, 0.94 for Beykoz Anadolu.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 602 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win52.2%

Draw26.9%

Beykoz Anadolu to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Beykoz Anadolu ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 602 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Beykoz Anadolu: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 5Actual: 11
Beykoz Anadolu: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.59

Attack: Sakaryaspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score0.94

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.9%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.